Bitcoin collapsed regularly prophesied since its inception. Now it leads the crypto market, which does not suffer from public neglect. Presenting it without Bitcoin is difficult, as well as the fact that the “crypto gold” will go away from there. However, skeptics do not calm down, predicting new collapse scenarios and transforming old ones. Let’s see how these scenarios are justified!
Bitcoin network has grown to gigantic size and continues to grow further, complicating the hypothetical task of destroying it with each passing hour. Many Bitcoin collapse scenarios might work with less popular currencies.
Circumstances that will force Bitcoin to disappear should be equivalent in strength to the Bitcoin network. It is obvious that one average person and even hundreds of people can not afford to force Bitcoin to disappear.
A number of factors of political, technical, psychological and other nature can be the reason for ousting Bitcoin from the market. True, it is worth considering that now Bitcoin is already able to withstand adverse circumstances for itself, as well as the fact that many situations are in fact unlikely.
If a large terrorist group begins actively use it and this unpleasant fact will be made available to the general public. Either someone with different wallets, on different exchanges, under different names, will start buying up coins, and then throw them to destabilize a certain industry. The legends about Satoshi Nakamoto will come true, and this one will be taken over by people potentially threatening world security.
If this “border of security” is crossed, obviously, Bitcoin will become the object of heavy criticism primarily at the state level, because the preservation of stability and security for the representatives of most countries is always a priority.
Naturally, such circumstances will naturally lead to a reduction in its user base of a potential accusation, even if it is a far-fetched connection with international terrorism or something like that negates the potential benefits of using Bitcoin, especially if there are other investment opportunities on the market.
The likelihood of such a development is low. There is no reason for the choice of bitcoin by extremists, on the contrary, some altcoins provide much greater anonymity. It is difficult for a single person or group of people to buy most of the bitcoins since the coin has spread too much. Million Satoshi Nakamoto also looks like something very ghostly.
If it is simultaneously banned in the United States, China, Russia and the countries of Western Europe, then gradually it can really weaken its market position, yet other countries will not be able to maintain its dominance sufficiently due to relatively limited investment opportunities.
On the other hand, if it grows strongly (up to $ 100,000 or more) without any particular reason, but at the same time penetrates significantly into the traditional economy, the threat of collapse and the subsequent economic crisis will become more noticeable, which could trigger radical measures by regulators.
In the case of Bitcoin, the implementation of this attack is difficult, since it will require power worth millions, or even billions of dollars. The question will be whether the game is worth the candle for interested persons. If it is, Bitcoin has a chance to disappear from the crypto market completely.
One assumes that errors will not be corrected, and the number of deficiencies will increase, or the defects themselves will increase (transactions will hang for even longer periods of time, and so on). As a result, users will switch to a more convenient cryptocurrency, and Bitcoin will fall due to their outflow.
Another scenario assumes that the errors will be corrected even too well, namely, the next hard fork will happen, so successful that its technical component will override the users’ confidence in Bitcoin and the latter will collapse under the pressure of the hard fork.
Bitcoin faces gradual extinction in both cases. They will still use them, but more and more people will use alternatives. The rate will fall, leading investors who are indifferent to the speed of transactions, but the cost is important. As a result, Bitcoin will have neither “technical” adherents, nor “economic” ones, and it will go into oblivion.
The probability of such a development of events can not be called low in a number of aspects Bitcoin – a rather “raw” currency. On the other hand, no hard fork has yet won it.
Crypto technologies are developing quite actively so that you can count on it. The only question is how bitcoin will be settled as an investment tool, what will be its weight from the point of view of the economy when the best cryptocurrency will appear.
Perhaps by that time, he will largely support the traditional economy, and then it’s impossible to talk about his oblivion. If his positions are still weak against the background of fiat money, then regulators will consider not only him but also other cryptocurrencies. Then the new coin will be able to push Bitcoin out of the market.
Hypothetically, if you hack several exchanges at once, purposefully attack Bitcoin and steal large sums, then some users will lose confidence in cryptocurrency in general, some – only to Bitcoin.
A lesser number of hacks will certainly lead to a certain depreciation, but ultimately users will understand that hacking Bitcoin resources is not equal to hacking Bitcoin, Bitcoin itself has not lost value, and you just need to protect sites and applications.
Sooner or later, Bitcoin may lose its investment attractiveness – for example, it will stop growing due to user transition to altcoins or due to a flurry of negative predictions from experts.
The opposite situation occurs, people will start to be disappointed in investing in startups at the ICO stage, altcoins will lose their attractiveness due to lack of development, disadvantage, doubtfulness and an excessive number of startups, and gradually there will come a general crypto disappointment that will drag down Bitcoin.
The probability of this can not be called a high cryptocurrency bring to their owners an increasing benefit, and the losses are associated mainly with carelessness, and not with cryptocurrency in general. The tendency to develop the crypto market remains and something essential has to happen in order to turn it in the opposite direction.
For example, with a highly successful bitcoin hard fork, it will continue its development with hard forks, despite the fact that bitcoin will be virtually lost. The same thing will happen when a new super-successful currency appears, which will eclipse Bitcoin.
If Bitcoin is officially banned, then there is a high probability that the states that already counted on cryptocurrency will create their own controlled digital money.
At a minimum, it will be logical to centralize and take control of what has previously created a significant inconvenience in a decentralized form. As a maximum, cryptocurrencies are able to bring practical benefits simply due to their technical features, and it is completely unwise to refuse their advantages.
However, the collapse of Bitcoin will be a strong blow to the crypto market. As of today, still few people are willing to trust cryptocurrency at all in general, but if they trust any currency, it is Bitcoin.
This category of users will most likely leave the market almost completely if Bitcoin loses its value and disappears, all the more so if it happens as a result of events characterizing cryptocurrency from the negative side.
Much depends on whether Bitcoin will have a replacement. If it does, then probably the crypto market will fluctuate a lot for a while, its volatility will increase significantly, but then everything will return to normal and it will continue to develop.
In the absence of a currency that could be a worthy replacement for Bitcoin, the leadership will be divided by several currencies. This is fraught with strong volatility of the market, longer and with more uncertain prospects than with the existence of an alternative to bitcoin.
In the presence of a flagship crypto market is largely due to it, and the lack of strong fluctuations, it also owes at most to it. In its absence, the market will depend on several currencies that are not sufficiently stable by themselves and for this reason alone can not ensure the stability of others.
The flow of investment will decrease, and the crypto market will again be trapped within the framework of a crypto economy and a rather limited community of crypto users. Of course, this will negatively affect its development.
However, the interest of the world community to smart contracts as such is obvious, and there is a high probability that this technology will remain regardless of how the crypto market changes.